How Stable is Turkey? An In-Depth Look at the Country’s Political Situation

Turkey is a fascinating country with a rich history strategic location and dynamic society. However, in recent years, its stability has come into question due to rising authoritarianism, regional conflicts, economic troubles, and other issues. In this article, we’ll analyze Turkey’s current political situation and examine how stable the country really is.

The Move Toward Autocracy

Since the AKP party came to power in 2002 under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has undergone concerning democratic backsliding. Erdogan’s rule has become increasingly authoritarian in nature.

• In 2017, a referendum passed giving the president enhanced powers, undermining checks and balances.

• In 2018 Erdogan was elected Turkey’s first executive president under a new presidential system.

• The government has purged tens of thousands of opponents from the civil service and jailed journalists and activists.

• Amendments to the constitution have eroded core democratic principles

This systematic consolidation of power in the presidency has created a repressive political environment. The civil liberties of Turkish citizens are increasingly restricted. While elections still occur, they have become less free and unfair.

Impact on Political Stability

This shift toward authoritarianism has coincided with a decline in Turkey’s political stability. According to World Bank data, Turkey’s political stability score fell from -0.95 in 2013 to -1.04 in 2022 on a scale from -2.5 to 2.5.

Several factors are impacting stability:

• Polarization: Turkish society is deeply divided between pro- and anti-Erdogan camps. This fuels instability.

• Economic troubles: Issues like unemployment, inflation, and a weak currency have led to discontent.

• Terrorism: Conflicts with Kurdish separatists and Islamic militants have resulted in terrorist attacks in Turkey. The government’s harsh crackdowns in response have also created tensions.

• Refugees: Turkey hosts over 3.7 million Syrian refugees, which has led to societal tensions.

• Foreign policy: Deteriorating relations with the West over issues like Turkey’s ties with Russia exacerbate instability.

Government Crackdown on Dissent

To maintain control, the Erdogan government has aggressively cracked down on dissent:

• Thousands have been jailed for alleged links to terrorist groups or the 2016 coup attempt.

• Many media outlets have been shut down and journalists arrested.

• Protest gatherings are regularly prohibited and broken up.

• Opposition parties like the pro-Kurdish HDP face harassment.

• The government has discussed banning the HDP, Turkey’s third largest party.

This repression of opposition voices has been enabled by Turkey’s broad anti-terrorism laws. But it eliminates checks on Erdogan’s power and further destabilizes Turkey.

Outlook for Turkey’s Future

Looking ahead, Turkey faces an uncertain future. While imminent collapse is unlikely, concerns persist:

• Democratic backsliding and volatility will likely continue absent a major political shift.

• The opposition remains fragmented and struggles to challenge Erdogan’s dominance.

• Economic troubles like inflation and unemployment may worsen.

• Regional conflicts like Syria, Iraq, and Cyprus remain unresolved.

• Relations with the West are increasingly strained.

To conclude, while Turkey retains strengths like a strategic location and dynamic society, its stability has been shaken by rising authoritarianism, regional conflicts, and economic vulnerabilities. Significant political and economic reform will be needed to put Turkey on a more sustainable path forward. The coming years will be crucial in determining the country’s trajectory.